guanlan-src/reference/rudong/positive_anchors.json

{
 "source": "ops.maint_major_parts (20 行, 损坏原因/失效分析报告列) + work_repair_daily (内窥 20 条) + 上气月报 vib_diag_detail; findings POSITIVE_ANCHOR_INVENTORY_20260823 (2026-08-23)",
 "tiers": {
  "physical_in_window": "实物证据 (内窥镜/金相/拆检) 且台在本轮 CMS 数据窗内、证据时间距窗 ≤30 天",
  "physical_historical": "实物证据, 但早于本轮 CMS 数据窗 (无 CMS 谱↔实物配对)",
  "closed_loop": "振动诊断→换件闭环, 无拆检文字 (只作支持证据, 不解封)"
 },
 "data_windows": [
  "2026-01-27/2026-02-05",
  "2026-06-29/2026-08-11"
 ],
 "anchors": [
  {
   "component_class": "gearbox_hs_bearing",
   "tier": "physical_in_window",
   "turbine": "WTG09",
   "date": "2026-01-23",
   "failure_mode": "HS 轴承外圈轻微损伤 (内窥镜, 运行中)",
   "evidence": "工单 2026-01-23 风机齿轮箱高速轴内窥镜检查"
  },
  {
   "component_class": "gearbox_hs_bearing",
   "tier": "physical_historical",
   "turbine": "WTG22",
   "date": "2025-07-14",
   "failure_mode": "HS 轴承点蚀 (内窥镜)",
   "evidence": "maint_major_parts: TCM 告警→振动分析→内窥镜点蚀→换高速轴"
  },
  {
   "component_class": "gearbox_hs_bearing",
   "tier": "physical_historical",
   "turbine": "WTG20",
   "date": "2025-04-02",
   "failure_mode": "HS 轴承点蚀 (内窥镜)",
   "evidence": "maint_major_parts"
  },
  {
   "component_class": "gearbox_hs_bearing",
   "tier": "physical_historical",
   "turbine": "WTG28",
   "date": "2025-08-23",
   "failure_mode": "HS 轴承点蚀 (内窥镜)",
   "evidence": "maint_major_parts"
  },
  {
   "component_class": "gearbox_hs_bearing",
   "tier": "physical_historical",
   "turbine": "WTG23",
   "date": "2024-05-13",
   "failure_mode": "HS 轴承点蚀剥落 (内窥镜)",
   "evidence": "maint_major_parts"
  },
  {
   "component_class": "gearbox_hs_bearing",
   "tier": "physical_historical",
   "turbine": "WTG05",
   "date": "2024-06-01",
   "failure_mode": "HS 轴承点蚀 (内窥镜)",
   "evidence": "maint_major_parts"
  },
  {
   "component_class": "gearbox_hs_bearing",
   "tier": "physical_historical",
   "turbine": "WTG19",
   "date": "2024-06-15",
   "failure_mode": "HS 轴承点蚀 (内窥镜)",
   "evidence": "maint_major_parts"
  },
  {
   "component_class": "generator_bearing",
   "tier": "physical_historical",
   "turbine": "WTG19",
   "date": "2024-01-05",
   "failure_mode": "前轴承内圈疲劳剥落 (金相)",
   "evidence": "maint_major_parts: 金相检验内圈疲劳剥落, 滚道次表面裂纹",
   "date_end": "2024-01-07",
   "date_end_source": "现场检修记录订正 (台账原文\"2024年1月5日-2023年1月7日\"结束年份笔误): 19# 2024-01-04 12:17→2024-01-07 10:29 作业窗; 2024-01-16「风机巡视整改、发电机轴承检查」; 2024-01-17「发电机轴承更换分公司验收」— 验收必在更换后, 故更换在 2024-01 上旬, 不可能是 2023-01",
   "field_detection_date": "2023-12-26",
   "field_detection_evidence": "19# 2023-12-26 13:13「发电机检查，环网柜监控调试」: \"风机检查发电机内部存在异响，外部无明显异常，对发电机前后轴承取油样\" — 现场靠**人耳异响**发现, 早于换件 10 天",
   "backtest_status": "BLOCKED_NO_PRE_WINDOW",
   "backtest_block_reason": "回测数据边界: 本场 TCM 传动链最早历史窗 = hist2024_w0504 (2024-04-28 起), 早于本锚 3 个月 ⇒ **无锚前窗可用, 不可回测**。BIG 盘 2026-08-27 全量核: /Volumes/BIG/cms/振动/ 唯一早于 2024 的包 20230918-data.rar 经解压确认为**单台叶片螺栓监测** (machines=[22111013433302051], 时窗 2023-08-23→09-17, vib/envelope 表均空), 非传动链 CMS。解封条件 = 业主调出 2023 年 TCM 数据。"
  },
  {
   "component_class": "generator_bearing",
   "tier": "physical_historical",
   "turbine": "WTG28",
   "date": "2024-01-08",
   "failure_mode": "前轴承内圈剥落 7mm/10mm (拆检)",
   "evidence": "maint_major_parts",
   "date_end": "2024-01-09",
   "date_end_source": "现场检修记录订正 (台账原文\"2024年1月8日-2023年1月9日\"结束年份笔误): 28#「发电机联轴器恢复」2024-01-07 13:54→**2024-01-09 08:28 复位** (复位日与台账结束日\"1月9日\"精确对应, 年份明确为 2024); 2024-01-12「发电机轴承更换验收」+ 2024-01-17「发电机轴承更换后验收」",
   "field_detection_date": "2023-12-27",
   "field_detection_evidence": "28# 2023-12-27 08:16「风机发电机检查」: \"检查发现发电机存在异响，对发电机进行掏油取油样，对发电机轴承进行润滑，待油样检测\" — 现场靠**人耳异响**发现, 早于换件 12 天",
   "backtest_status": "BLOCKED_NO_PRE_WINDOW",
   "backtest_block_reason": "回测数据边界: 本场 TCM 传动链最早历史窗 = hist2024_w0504 (2024-04-28 起), 早于本锚 3 个月 ⇒ **无锚前窗可用, 不可回测**。BIG 盘 2026-08-27 全量核: /Volumes/BIG/cms/振动/ 唯一早于 2024 的包 20230918-data.rar 经解压确认为**单台叶片螺栓监测** (machines=[22111013433302051], 时窗 2023-08-23→09-17, vib/envelope 表均空), 非传动链 CMS。解封条件 = 业主调出 2023 年 TCM 数据。"
  },
  {
   "component_class": "generator_bearing",
   "tier": "physical_historical",
   "turbine": "WTG17",
   "date": "2024-09-19",
   "failure_mode": "轴承高温跑圈, 轴损 (拆检)",
   "evidence": "maint_major_parts"
  },
  {
   "component_class": "generator_bearing",
   "tier": "physical_historical",
   "turbine": "WTG23",
   "date": "2024-09-11",
   "failure_mode": "轴承高温跑圈, 轴损 (拆检)",
   "evidence": "maint_major_parts"
  },
  {
   "component_class": "generator_bearing",
   "tier": "closed_loop",
   "turbine": "WTG27",
   "date": "2026-01-27",
   "failure_mode": "上气内圈线早期→中晚期→换件, 无拆检文字",
   "evidence": "work_repair_daily 2026-01-27 发电机轴承更换; vib_diag_detail 2025-12/2026-01"
  },
  {
   "component_class": "generator_bearing",
   "tier": "closed_loop",
   "turbine": "WTG02",
   "date": "2025-12-04",
   "failure_mode": "异响+振动确认后轴承损坏, 预防性更换",
   "evidence": "maint_major_parts E02",
   "date_end": "2025-12-07",
   "date_end_source": "现场检修记录订正 (台账原文\"2025年12月4日-2025年12月70\"末位残缺): 02#「发电机前后轴承更换」2025-12-04 15:06→**2025-12-07 16:10 复位** ⇒ \"12月70\" = \"12月7日\""
  },
  {
   "component_class": "generator_bearing",
   "tier": "closed_loop",
   "turbine": "WTG24",
   "date": "2025-12-15",
   "failure_mode": "上气 2025-10/11 异常→前后轴承更换",
   "evidence": "work_repair_daily 20 条"
  },
  {
   "component_class": "main_bearing",
   "tier": "physical_historical",
   "turbine": "WTG03",
   "date": null,
   "failure_mode": "主轴前轴承点蚀 (FAG 化验)",
   "evidence": "maint_major_parts"
  },
  {
   "component_class": "main_bearing",
   "tier": "physical_historical",
   "turbine": "WTG08",
   "date": null,
   "failure_mode": "主轴前轴承点蚀 (FAG 化验)",
   "evidence": "maint_major_parts"
  },
  {
   "component_class": "main_bearing",
   "tier": "physical_historical",
   "turbine": "WTG28",
   "date": null,
   "failure_mode": "主轴前轴承点蚀 (FAG 化验)",
   "evidence": "maint_major_parts"
  },
  {
   "component_class": "main_bearing",
   "tier": "physical_historical",
   "turbine": "WTG33",
   "date": "2023-06",
   "failure_mode": "主轴前轴承点蚀 (油脂外来颗粒)",
   "evidence": "maint_major_parts; timeline 2023-06-21 换主轴后限功率观察"
  },
  {
   "component_class": "generator_bearing",
   "tier": "physical_historical",
   "turbine": "WTG05",
   "date": null,
   "failure_mode": "轴承跑圈, 轴损伤 (油脂排油不畅→油脂板结→轴承过温膨胀→与轴过盈失效→跑圈)",
   "evidence": "maint_major_parts (机位号 '5#', 更换项目=发电机更换); **维修时间栏为空 ⇒ 无日期, 不可用于前瞻回测**, 仅作失效模式归类证据",
   "note": "2026-08-26 anchors×台账逐条对拍补登记 — 此前漏登记。与 17#/23# 同机制(高温跑圈+轴损), 但台账把根因写得更全: 润滑不畅是起点"
  },
  {
   "component_class": "generator_bearing",
   "tier": "physical_historical",
   "turbine": "WTG32",
   "date": null,
   "failure_mode": "轴承跑圈, 轴损伤 (油脂排油不畅→油脂板结→轴承过温膨胀→与轴过盈失效→跑圈; 前期维护间隔较长)",
   "evidence": "maint_major_parts (机位号 '32#', 更换项目=发电机更换); **维修时间栏为空 ⇒ 无日期, 不可用于前瞻回测**, 仅作失效模式归类证据",
   "note": "2026-08-26 对拍补登记。★该台此前出现在回测路径2 的**假阳名单**里 — 补登记后应重新审视: 未登记的真锚会被误计为假阳, 使 precision 被系统性低估"
  }
 ],
 "date_correction_20260827": {
  "方法": "现场检修记录 (风场名=\"如海风电场\", 非\"如东\" — 首轮按\"如东\"检索 0 命中属检索词错误) 逐条比对台账脏值行",
  "源": [
   "/Users/yuanying/rudong/如东风场数据/风机故障记录/**/中广核*故障记录汇总表*.xlsx :: sheet「故障填报主表」",
   "/Users/yuanying/rudong/如东风场数据/2025-2026检修记录/*.xlsx :: sheet「故障填报主表」"
  ],
  "注": "Sheet3 为集团模板 (94 陆上场示例, 时间 2021), 真数据在「故障填报主表」sheet — 两者不可混。",
  "结论": "三行结束日全部定案, 均有独立检修记录条目支撑; 三行**开始日原文本就清楚**, 故本次订正不改任何锚日期, 亦不解锁任何回测 (19#/28# 受阻于数据边界而非日期)。",
  "WTG24核验": "锚 2025-12-15 经检修记录确认无误 (12-15 14:38 起吊工具 → 12-16~12-28 联轴器/护罩/对中 → 12-29 收尾)。"
 }
}